Summary and outlook | three or four line will become the main battlefield of deleveraging, long-term mechanism or faster
In 2017, the regulation policy was constantly added, and more three or four line cities were added to the regulation and control ranks. "Restricted sale" has become a major highlight of real estate regulation in 2017. Since March, Xiamen has been the first to limit its sale to individuals. The restricted city has been expanded to 46 cities, and another 7 cities have been upgraded to sale. At the same time, financial deleveraging continues to push forward and strictly limit lending. Meanwhile, hot cities are investigating the flow of consumption loans and strictly preventing the illegal flow of funds into the real estate market. After pressing demand, curb investment and reduce the purchasing power of buyers in the market, the three or four quarter began to promote the development of the construction of the rental market, rental housing 12 city to carry out the first batch of pilot, the local land supply levels have also actively support, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other hot a second tier city listing and transfer land leasing land at the same time collective construction land, renovation of rental housing to speed up the system of ice. Especially the "Nineteen big" clear positioning, "the house is for living, not for frying", the real estate regulation and long-term mechanism related specific measures will accelerate the landing.
One, more than three or four lines to join the regulation and control, "limited sale" into the two or three line to regulate the "new weight"
In 2017, taking Beijing as the "top soldier", more and more three or four line cities opened the curtain of real estate regulation, which was the first time in the regulation cycle. The sale restriction policy has become the biggest highlight of the current round of real estate regulation. The two or three tier cities have been landing or upgrading, which is intended to freeze real estate transactions and stabilize the real estate market. Specifically:
1, the limited purchase expansion to 58 cities, the three or four line city policy is relatively mild
In 2017, the first tier cities focused on strengthening the management of the business office market, and the business category projects were strictly forbidden to sell to similar residential products. Beijing and Guangzhou were strictly restricted in the construction business office. Beijing is also a business run project into the scope of the limit, personal purchase of second-hand business run projects in Beijing without housing and social security for 5 years. In addition, the upgrading of Guangzhou was limited by the purchase of 1 sets of household registration for single family members. The number of non registered household social security payment increased to 5 years from 3 years ago, and 1 sets were restricted in two districts of Zengcheng and Conghua.
The city is restricted to buy policy expansion to 18 cities, Xi'an, Shijiazhuang, new Changsha, Qingdao, Haikou and Ningbo 6 cities, Nanjing, Hangzhou and Xiamen, the 13 city upgrade purchase, covering the following aspects: the purchase of regional expansion to suburban areas, increase or improve the non local Hukou household social security deposit period requirements. The city residence of a single and divorced the implementation of the purchase of second-hand housing, and will be included in the purchase scope. Three or four line Limited purchase policy rapid expansion to 36 cities, new Sanya, Ganzhou, Baoding and other 28 cities, and Dongguan, Zhuhai, Foshan and other 13 cities to upgrade the limit.
Duoshusansi line the city's purchase of the policy implementation efforts in temperate region and the purchase of household registration, which means the restriction of only the center of the city and non local family residence, suburban area, local family residence is not restricted. In addition to the 5 years' social security requirements of Zhuhai's non registered residents, the remaining three or four lines of urban social security have been paid for 1-3 years, and the city purchase standard does not relate to the relevant provisions such as social security life and other years.
2, the first line and the hot second line recognition of the housing loan, the three or four line generally recognised the house does not recognize the loan
In 2017, two cities in Beijing and Guangzhou upgraded their loans in succession to increase the proportion of two sets and non ordinary residential down payments. Up to now, the first tier cities recognized the housing and recognized the loans, two sets of non ordinary residential down payment in the proportion of more than 70%, Beijing is up to 80%.
The second line City limited loan policy is clearly differentiated, the new limited loan city policy is more moderate, the first suite down payment is not more than 30%, the two suite down payment is not more than 50%. Hangzhou, Zhengzhou and Tianjin, and other cities to limit the loan, the implementation of recognition of the house and credit, the two suite down 60%. The two cities in Nanjing and Suzhou were abused to limit their loans. The two suites had a first payment of up to 80%, even higher than the first tier cities.
The three or four line city limit loan policy is relatively loose, the general implementation of the house does not recognize the loan, the first suite down payment is not more than 30%, the two suite down payment is not more than 50%. After the approval of Xiong an New District, the real estate market in Hebei continues to increase. The number of households in Bazhou, Wen'an, Renqiu and other cities is strictly limited. The first suite is not less than 50%, which is significantly higher than that in the second tier cities.
3, the price is confined to the part of the hot line and two or three line city, Duoshusansi city did not follow up
The implementation of the policy limit on hot a second tier city and central city in the three or four line of the city, the city is not the limit line Duoshusansi. The contents of the policy include the following points: first, referring to the price limit of competing products, the declared price is not higher than that of the surrounding competitive products or the previous sale price of the case; secondly, the mandatory pre-sale price increase is mandatory, and some cities take the October 2016 housing price as the reference standard to ensure that the housing price does not increase. Third, the implementation of red hot line in the implementation of the price regulation of hot cities. If the price is declared higher than the regulatory red line, the new sales permit will not be approved in principle, for example, Nanjing will suspend the issuance of the 45 thousand / m2 project.
At present, the price competition between local governments and housing companies is becoming more and more intense. Some hot cities are more strict in controlling housing supply. Even if they accept the government's price limits, the Housing Authority will not reply to the new pre-sale certificate. Therefore, the new supply of hot cities has fallen down, even in the traditional selling season, the supply remains at a lower level. For example, in Shanghai, only 10 thousand square meters of new supply was added to the city in October, and the city's new supply was less than 10 thousand square meters. This is rare in history.
4, 46 City landing, 7 cities upgrade limited sale, "personal limited sale" into the two or three line city regulation and control allocations
The limited sale policy is one of the highlights of real estate regulation. Following Xiamen's first sale in March, other cities follow up.
Up to now, the 46 cities have been landing on sale, and the 7 cities in Chengde, Xi'an, Dongguan, Nanning, Changsha, Shijiazhuang and Yangzhou have been upgraded and restricted, and Hainan province has been restricted in the whole province. As far as all level cities are concerned, only Guangzhou is limited to the sale of households in front of the first tier cities, while households in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are not limited to sale.
First-tier cities restriction, limited credit policy very rigorous, the purchase threshold significantly decreasing, non local Hukou household social security need to pay for 5 consecutive years, two sets of non ordinary housing Shoufu ratio in more than 70%, are not eligible to buy, do not have the ability to buy the market has gradually become the norm, the necessity of the introduction of the sales policy.
The second tier city policy has restricted the expansion to 19 cities in Chengdu, Chongqing, Nanjing and the hot second tier city majority, in addition to Harbin, Dalian Changchun, this kind of high inventory City, Suzhou, Wuhan, Tianjin and other hot city is not restricted, the future does not rule out the possibility of follow up fall restricted.
The three or four line City limited sale policy has increased to 26 cities, most of which are the three or four line cities of the core city, which are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the ring Bohai region. After the approval of Xiong an new area, the real estate market in Hebei province continues to rise, and Chengde, Baoding, Zhangjiakou and other cities have issued a limited sale order. Limit the sale of a majority of city policy efforts, limit the sale in the period of 2-3 years, Haikou, Xi'an, Shenyang, Beihai, Sanya, Shijiazhuang and Quanzhou 7 cities up to 5 years, Baoding's "dual restrictions and competing land construction of commercial housing sales limit cycle for 10 years, which is called" the history of the most stringent".
Most of the city into the region and time, the household registration, a limited sale of second-hand housing, which restricted only in urban area or the purchase area, the purchase of new commercial housing, non permanent residents and Yishoufang, suburban or non restriction area, early purchase of commodity housing, local family residence and second-hand housing is not within the restricted scope. The standard of limited sale is not the same, in order to improve the pertinence of the regulation policy. For example, Xi'an, Shenyang, two cities, one - hand room limit for the sale of 5 years, second-hand housing only 2 years.
Two, strictly "limit loan", strictly control "consumer loan", raise interest rate, residents "deleveraging" continuous high pressure
The financial deleveraging is fully upgraded, and the central bank focuses on the assessment of the macro Prudential evalsuation system (MPA) of financial institutions and the implementation of reverse cycle regulation. In 2017, the central bank formally incorporated out of statement financial management into the broad scope of credit indicators in order to guide financial institutions to strengthen the management of off balance sheet operations. In the context of strengthening financial supervision, the growth of the business is slowing down obviously, the effect of monetary derivation is weakening, and the effect of financial deleveraging is gradually showing. M2 growth rate fell month by month, further down to 9.1% at the end of 11, a 2.3 percentage point decrease compared to the same period last year. The real estate market deleveraging is accelerating, Shoufu loan has become a key regulatory target, Beijing, Nanjing City, the banking financial institutions to carry out self-examination work, focus on examination of "consumer loans" and "loan business", "housing loan against" capital flows, Guangzhou is a full stop amount over 1 million yuan or 10 over the period the consumer loan. At the same time, hot and second-tier cities have raised mortgage interest rates, discounted interest rates have almost vanished, and mortgage interest rates are rising on a different rate on the basis of benchmark interest rates.
However, the situation of highly leveraged housing has not been substantially reversed. Long term loans in the household sector, including consumption and business loans, account for a long run of new loans. In July, new and medium - and long - term loans accounted for up to 57.4%, refreshing the new high in the year, and then receded, but still maintained at a high level. The household sector's short-term loans (including consumption and business loans) also rose steadily. In March, the proportion of new short-term loans rose to 32.3% historical highs. On the contrary, the total retail sales of social consumer goods run smoothly, and the daily consumption expenditure of residents has not increased significantly. The side confirms that a large part of residents' loans are still used for housing consumption, and the real estate market is still an important export of bank credit funds. In terms of the overall trend, the proportion of both short-term and medium - and long-term loans to domestic new loans is still rising month by month in 2017.
Three, hire purchase and housing system to promote, rental housing market into the fast lane
In 2017, the housing rental market has become a hot topic in the market, and the brand housing enterprise has stepped up the layout of the long rented apartment, which is intended to get a share of the rental market. In order to speed up the construction and hire purchase housing system, the policy level blowing frequency, the rental market entered the fast track of development, collective reflected in the following three points:
First, large and medium-sized cities first try to develop the rental market first. Nine ministries in Shenzhen, from Guangzhou, Nanjing and other 12 city as the first to carry out the rental housing pilot, nineteen clear requirements to speed up the establishment and hire purchase housing system, let all the people and housing. At present, the large and middle cities with continuous net inflow of population will try to develop the housing rental market so as to carry out the new policy to the executive level. In the case of Shanghai, "13th Five-Year" during the new supply of 1 million 700 thousand sets of various types of housing, including rental housing 700 thousand units.
Second, bank credit, REITs and other leasing business financing short board. A number of commercial banks in the leasing market frequently, in succession to the United States, bassia garden and many other housing enterprises to provide credit, supporting enterprises to develop a long rent apartment. In addition, enterprises actively explore the financial innovation of the rental market, and issue the rental housing special corporate bonds with the brand Housing enterprises represented by Longhu. Baoli is issuing the first single rental housing REITs in China, and further widens the financing channels of the leasing business.
Third, the level of supply is actively supported, and Shanghai is in the lead. The Ministry of land has decided to use the collective construction land to rebuild rental housing in 13 cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenyang. Beijing, Zhengzhou and other cities have issued detailed rules for implementation. For example, in 5 years from 2017, Beijing will supply 10 million square meters of collective land for the construction of rental housing. The mode of land transfer in hot cities has been adjusted, and the new regulations of "limit land price and self holding" are implemented, and the proportion of self holding has increased significantly. It is worth mentioning that, at the end of the Shanghai pure homestead mandatory agreement, the transferee for rental housing construction area of 15% self-sustaining. Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities sell lots of leasing land, Shanghai is also in the forefront of the country, the supply of pure lease land has increased continuously, and many other businesses have been converted to rental housing. Up to now, the total of 15 renting land is sold in Shanghai, with a total construction surface of 1 million 90 thousand square meters.
"Four limits" superimposed credit contraction, will expand to the three or four line, long-term mechanism measures will be accelerated to the ground
First of all, "the nineteen big" clear positioning "house is for living, not for frying". In 2018, the specific measures of the housing market control policy will focus on this positioning. At the end of this year, three ministries once again set the tone for the 2018 market regulation: adhere to the regulation unwavering goal, efforts do not slack, and strengthen the monitoring and early warning, to prevent the market change radically.
In the future, the property market regulation will be "stable", and tightening regulation policy will run parallel to the inventory, but the balance will tilt to tightening regulation. On the one hand, although the focus of a second tier city real estate market was cooling, but in short supply in the market is not a substantive shift, prices still rose a certain pressure, the need to maintain the existing regulatory policy, efforts to change; on the other hand, continue to improve more the three or four line of the city market heat, housing prices, land prices rose rapidly, the market has been fully activated "pre stimulus need to fade or even into tightening regulation, to maintain stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Second, the central bank reiterated at the end of the year: the financial policy remained stable and neutral, and the real estate deleveraging was promoted in an orderly way, especially the leveraging rate of residents could not continue to increase. For a long time, the market expectations that housing prices will only rise or fall will be difficult to guarantee. The asset shortage and asset price bubbles will become more and more serious. The real estate market is still an important export of huge credit funds. We expect a very long period of time in the next year, the supervision of the real estate credit funds from a second tier city sinking to the three or four line of the city residents, reduce social leverage, especially on investment demand driven, housing prices rose too fast in the three or four line of the city, gradient and rapid contraction, shed changed the monetization of financial leverage the placement of the exit, the three or four line of the city market will face adjustment pressures.
Finally, the Central Political Bureau meeting reiterated that one of the priorities of the 2018 work was to speed up the reform of the housing system and the construction of a long-term real estate mechanism. There is no doubt that "and" has already risen to the housing tenure system level, will be a long-term, basic institutional arrangements, the rental housing market is undoubtedly a "wind", the population continued net inflow of large and medium-sized city will focus on the development of the housing rental market, and accelerate the establishment of a hire purchase housing system, in order to live in the long-term goal, live and work in peace. It is predicted that more real estate development enterprises and other social enterprises will step up the layout of rental housing, and flexibly use various financing tools such as bank credit, corporate bonds, REITs and so on to make up the short board of leasing business financing. Besides, land reform, tax reform, financial innovation and other aspects, as a long-term mechanism of real estate, may be quicker than the market expectations.
